Own poll shows English ahead, campaign says

By Matt Snyder
Herald Staff Writer

MERCER COUNTY October 28, 2008 09:08 pm

— For the Republicans out there biting their nails over the polling in U.S. Rep. Phil English’s 3rd District congressional race, there’s a spot of bright news.
English released an internal poll taken last Wednesday and Thursday by Public Opinion Strategies that shows him leading his Democratic rival Kathy Dahlkemper 47 to 45 percent.
The poll also showed English leading Mrs. Dahlkemper 46 to 31 percent among independent voters. Numbers also showed English’s favorability rating at 45 percent and Mrs. Dahlkemper’s at 38 percent. The poll did not say what the candidates’ unfavorability rating was.
A Dahlkemper internal poll released in July showed the candidates in a dead heat. Statistically, neither poll shows a clear favorite because the difference is within their sampling margins of error.
The English poll used a sample of 350 voters, and the campaign said it had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.24 percentage points. The Dahlkemper poll of 400 had a margin of error of 4 points.
Though the English poll talked to 50 fewer people than the Dahlkemper poll, English’s campaign manager Adam Beebe said it’s consistent with other internal polling.
The English campaign said two prior independent polls released earlier this month showing Mrs. Dahlkemper 4 or 7 points ahead, respectively, were inaccurate because they were done using automated phone calls or didn’t correctly represent the district.
On this poll, Beebe said, “It has the proper Democratic/Republican/independent split, it’s weighted correctly for how the district is made up, and it is done using the proper scientific method.” He added it was taken during two weekdays instead of the weekend, making it more accurate.
Cal Garner, Mrs. Dahlkemper’s spokesperson, knocked the poll’s smaller sample size and questioned its validity. “All the polling data to this point shows Kathy leading,” he said.
Neither campaign has released internal polls besides the July numbers from Mrs. Dahlkemper and the latest from English.
Garner would not comment on whether their campaign has done any other polling. Beebe, when asked if internal polls prior to the latest would be released, said they were “yesterday’s news.”
Beebe said all prior, unreleased polls jibe with the released numbers.
While Garner said he would not comment on the campaign’s polling strategy, he did say English’s poll is disputed by all the numbers their campaign has seen. He said Mrs. Dahlkemper has the momentum in an election that favors change.
English’s race is seen as a toss-up race or a toss-up leaning Democratic by the Washington, D.C., journalism groups Rothenberg Political Report and Cook Political Report.