This might be the toughest political fight of Phil English’s life. Or even his last.

Polls have shown Republican U.S. Rep. English behind his Democratic 3rd District congressional opponent Kathy Dahlkemper by four or seven points, though English, a 14-year veteran of the House, disputes their results and released a portion of his own internal polls showing him with a slight lead.

Washington, D.C. political prognosticators like the Rothenberg Political Report and Cook Political Report have called the race a toss-up, or even tilting Mrs. Dahlkemper’s way.

The district, which includes most of Mercer County, has been targeted by the national Democratic party for its “Red to Blue” program, giving Mrs. Dahlkemper a financial boost and higher profile than English’s past Democratic opponents.

Likewise, the economy has been giving Democrats a national boost alongside lopsided Pennsylvania registration that pits about 4.4 million Democrats against 3.2 million Republicans. In Mercer County, Democrats have about a 7,000 voter lead.

If the stars weren’t already aligned for Mrs. Dahlkemper, there’s also independent candidate Dr. Steven Porter’s drop from the November ballot. Porter ran as a Democrat in 2004 and 2006 and as a write-in candidate this year he will be far less likely to strip whole percentages from the Democratic ticket.

English rode into power partly on the Republican wave of 1994, but now that wave may be ending.

Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum graduated to the Senate the same year English went to Washington, D.C., where they joined U.S. Rep. Melissa Hart, a neighboring Republican to the south of English’s district and who represents 13 Mercer County precincts.

In 2006, Mrs. Hart and Santorum were ousted from power. English clung on, winning against an underfunded Porter by 53 to 42 percent, with Constitution Party candidate Tim Hagberg absorbing 4 percent of the vote. Porter won Mercer County by just under 700 votes, about 2.11 percent.

English said he’s not the end of a historical moment. He said there’s been several “waves” since he took office, including the one that took other Republicans out in 2006.

“I’ve seen many of the people I came in with who took rigid ideological positions and did not stay close to the public mood get voted out,” English said.

“I feel very strongly by maintaining an independent voting record and by focusing on issues that many Republicans don’t focus on – for example, fair trade, workers benefits, unemployment compensation, the minimum wage – we’ve been able to offer a very different profile than other Republicans.”

But the 3rd District, which includes all or parts of Mercer, Crawford, Erie, Armstrong, Butler, Warren and Venango counties, is in visibly poor shape, a fact which Mrs. Dahlkemper has blamed English for.

“There's a lot of call for change, there's a call for change across the country,” Mrs. Dahlkemper said. "I believe the voters do see me as the person who can bring that change about."

Mrs. Dahlkemper called it a “crossroads” moment in western Pennsylvania and the nation. “Voters will determine whether we're going to go on the same course we've been going on, or whether we're going to choose a new course."