"It is an interesting approach and certainly the use of daily advertising data and the data on blog posts are very innovative aspects of this work," says Sitabhra Sinha, a physicist at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai, India, who has applied mathematical techniques to studies of the United States movie market. However, he points out that the model relies on social network data that can't be known in advance. This means that rather than predicting a movie's success, the model is better suited to explaining how its performance evolves over time.
Ishii agrees that his team's model can be use only to extrapolate a sales trend a week or so into the future and does not predict total movie revenue. Still, he thinks it could help fine tune a marketing campaign by, for example, boosting advertising if blog post numbers suggest a film is losing steam.